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开源证券
行业投资策略
表2:2022Q2次高端品牌收入和净利润短期阶段性承压
| 简称 | 项目/时间 | 2021Q1 | 2021Q2 | 2021Q3 | 2021Q4 | 2022Q1 | 2022Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
水井
坊 |
营收增速 | 70.2% | 691.5% | 38.9% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 10.4% |
| 净利润增速 | 119.7% | -52.0% | 56.3% | -13.4% | -13.5% | 116.9% | |
| 毛利率 | 85.1% | 83.5% | 85.8% | 82.8% | 84.9% | 84.6% | |
| 销售费用率 | 21.7% | 52.7% | 13.0% | 36.2% | 29.0% | 43.3% | |
| 净利率 | 33.8% | -7.1% | 39.3% | 16.4% | 25.6% | 1.1% | |
|
舍得
酒业 |
营收增速 | 154.2% | 119.3% | 64.8% | 44.9% | 83.3% | -16.3% |
| 净利润增速 | 1031.2% | 215.3% | 59.7% | 2.1% | 75.7% | -29.7% | |
| 毛利率 | 77.6% | 79.7% | 76.7% | 77.1% | 80.8% | 73.8% | |
| 销售费用率 | 14.5% | 14.5% | 21.4% | 19.7% | 18.5% | 15.6% | |
| 净利率 | 29.4% | 31.8% | 19.3% | 20.3% | 28.2% | 26.7% | |
|
山西
汾酒 |
营收增速 | 77.1% | 73.4% | 47.9% | -24.9% | 43.6% | 0.4% |
| 净利润增速 | 78.2% | 258.2% | 55.9% | -29.6% | 70.0% | -4.3% | |
| 毛利率 | 73.5% | 77.2% | 76.2% | 72.1% | 74.8% | 78.4% | |
| 销售费用率 | 17.9% | 14.9% | 14.7% | 13.8% | 11.2% | 15.9% | |
| 净利率 | 29.8% | 28.4% | 26.0% | 16.0% | 35.2% | 27.1% | |
|
酒鬼
酒 |
营收增速 | 190.4% | 96.8% | 128.7% | 10.8% | 86.0% | 5.3% |
| 净利润增速 | 178.9% | 174.0% | 43.4% | 7.8% | 94.5% | -18.7% | |
| 毛利率 | 79.4% | 81.2% | 79.2% | 80.2% | 79.8% | 77.8% | |
| 销售费用率 | 22.2% | 21.5% | 29.0% | 28.0% | 21.8% | 27.0% | |
| 净利率 | 29.5% | 30.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 30.9% | 23.2% | |
|
洋河
股份 |
营收增速 | 13.5% | 20.7% | 16.7% | 55.8% | 23.8% | 17.1% |
| 净利润增速 | -3.5% | 28.6% | -13.1% | -0.5% | 29.1% | 6.1% | |
| 毛利率 | 76.2% | 70.8% | 76.1% | 77.8% | 77.3% | 66.5% | |
| 销售费用率 | 6.3% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 39.4% | 6.6% | 10.7% | |
| 净利率 | 36.7% | 35.8% | 24.2% | 8.7% | 38.3% | 32.4% |
数据来源：Wind、开源证券研究所
二季度江苏、安徽疫情影响较小，消费场景复苏较快，大众高端白酒表现相对较好。江苏省和安徽省经济增速居全国前列，为省内消费升级和白酒扩容提供基础。此外，二季度疫情影响相对较小，主要城市未出现较大规模疫情管控，消费场景在5、6月快速恢复，省内龙头酒企凭借扎实的渠道基础建设和当地较强的品牌影响力，整体动销表现良好。分品牌看，古井贡酒和今世缘保持较高业绩增速，且利润增速快于收入增速，盈利能力同比2021Q2也有所提升；口子窖业绩表现略低于预期，主要系疫情影响发货进度，同时公司未向经销商压货，导致二季度经营节奏略慢。迎驾贡酒二季度业绩微增，省内动销趋势向好，但省外华东地区受疫情影响较大，业绩增长阶段性承压。展望下半年，在江苏、安徽在疫情扰动因素减弱和经济快速发展下，大众高端白酒仍将以结构升级和市场拓张为主，全年业绩有望顺利完成。
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