财务预测摘要

人民币亿	2020A	2021A	2022E	2023E	2024E	财务指标	2020A	2021A	2022E	2023E	2024E
利润表						收入增长
净利息收入	2,533.78	2,693.82	2,837.71	3,041.79	3,284.97	净利润增速	5.42%	18.96%	13.93%	14.48%	15.68%
手续费及佣金	164.95	220.07	300.85	387.35	496.56	拨备前利润增速	-0.47%	8.05%	7.96%	8.07%	10.73%
其他收入	163.48	273.75	356.44	405.53	458.25	税前利润增速	6.93%	19.52%	14.10%	14.42%	15.47%
营业收入	2,862.21	3,187.64	3,495.00	3,834.68	4,239.78	营业收入增速	3.40%	11.37%	9.64%	9.72%	10.56%
营业税及附加	21.87	24.68	26.93	29.51	32.72	净利息收入增速	5.48%	6.32%	5.34%	7.19%	7.99%
业务管理费	1,656.49	1,881.02	2,085.05	2,311.20	2,551.93	手续费及佣金增速	-3.45%	33.42%	36.70%	28.75%	28.19%
其他业务成本	1.92	1.29	0.87	0.98	0.85	业务管理费用增速	5.78%	13.55%	10.85%	10.85%	10.42%
营业外净收入	3.79	0.49	1.03	1.77	0.90	其他业务成本增速	-55.45%	-32.81%	-32.17%	12.45%	-13.82%
拨备前利润	1,185.72	1,281.14	1,383.17	1,494.75	1,655.17	规模增长
计提拨备	504.17	466.58	453.74	431.32	427.17	生息资产增速	11.02%	10.78%	12.08%	10.33%	10.20%
税前利润	681.55	814.56	929.43	1,063.44	1,228.00	贷款增速	14.65%	13.15%	11.60%	12.53%	10.49%
所得税	38.18	49.22	57.47	65.21	73.21	同业资产增速	23.95%	15.23%	11.26%	10.51%	10.30%
净利润	643.37	765.34	871.96	998.22	1,154.79	证券投资增速	6.39%	10.95%	9.97%	7.64%	9.92%
资产负债表						其他资产增速	19.11%	17.62%	-87.20%	528.94%	117.19%
贷款	55,124	62,372	69,610	78,330	86,546	计息负债增速	10.44%	10.41%	11.11%	11.14%	11.15%
同业资产	5,520	6,361	7,077	7,821	8,626	存款增速	11.21%	9.62%	11.30%	11.30%	11.30%
证券投资	39,088	43,367	47,692	51,334	56,429	同业负债增速	-17.42%	63.64%	6.30%	7.89%	7.89%
生息资产	111,931	123,995	138,976	153,335	168,976	归属母公司权益增速	23.52%	18.20%	3.69%	12.92%	13.07%
非生息资产	1,602	1,884	241	1,516	3,293	资产质量
总资产	113,533	125,879	139,217	154,851	172,269	不良贷款率	0.88%	0.82%	0.85%	0.85%	0.84%
存款	103,580	113,541	126,375	140,660	156,560	不良贷款净生成率	1.22%	1.25%	10.04%	10.06%	9.49%
其他计息负债	2,343	3,404	3,568	3,765	3,975	拨备覆盖率	408.06%	418.61%	401.69%	366.84%	342.74%
非计息负债	880	978	1,024	1,109	1,198	拨贷比	3.59%	3.43%	3.29%	2.93%	2.66%
总负债	106,803	117,923	130,967	145,534	161,733	资本
母公司所有者权益	6,718	7,941	8,234	9,298	10,513	资本充足率	13.88%	14.78%	14.42%	13.87%	13.42%
利率指标						核心资本充足率	9.60%	9.92%	9.79%	9.72%	9.68%
净息差(NIM)	2.25%	2.17%	2.05%	1.92%	1.94%	杠杆倍数	5.90%	6.30%	5.90%	5.76%	5.65%
净利差(Spread)	2.14%	2.05%	1.93%	1.78%	1.82%	每股指标
生息资产收益率	3.69%	3.63%	3.51%	3.49%	3.49%	EPS(摊薄)	0.74	0.82	0.94	1.08	1.25
计息负债成本率	1.55%	1.58%	1.58%	1.66%	1.67%	每股拨备前利润(元)	0.42	0.86	1.21	1.38	0.42
盈利能力						BVPS	7.72	8.60	8.91	10.06	11.38
信贷成本	0.89%	0.73%	0.63%	0.55%	0.50%	每股总资产(元)	133.27	135.33	137.40	131.70	137.53
成本收入比	58.71%	59.82%	60.45%	61.07%	60.98%	P/E	6.11	5.47	4.79	4.19	3.62
ROAA	0.57%	0.62%	0.64%	0.66%	0.68%	P/PPOP	10.72	5.23	3.73	3.28	10.73
ROAE	9.68%	9.74%	10.63%	10.83%	11.11%	P/B	0.58	0.52	0.51	0.45	0.40
拨备前利润率	41.43%	40.19%	39.58%	38.98%	39.04%	P/A	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03
所得税有效税率	5.60%	6.04%	6.18%	6.13%	5.96%

资料来源:财信证券, iFinD

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